UK Groups Build Free Tool to Test Plants Against Future Climate
A UK coalition including the RHS is testing a free Garden Climate Assessment Tool that rates how plants may cope with future climate in your location.
A coalition of UK horticultural organisations is building a free online tool that predicts whether a plant will survive the climate expected at a gardener’s chosen location. Called the Garden Climate Assessment Tool (GCAT), it was opened on Monday to professional gardeners, who were invited to try it and give feedback. There is no firm date for a wider release.
What the tool does
The tool was developed by the Future National Gardens Group, which includes the Royal Horticultural Society, the National Trust, English Heritage and the Royal Botanic Gardens. Users enter a list of plants and a location. The tool then assesses how each plant could tolerate the projected climate there, taking into account factors such as annual average temperature, the plant’s natural distribution, winter cold and how dry the climate is.
It is based on a climate assessment tool from Botanic Gardens Conservation International that launched in Australia in 2022 and covered only trees. The UK group has widened the approach to cover plants generally. The system currently holds up to 80,650 plant types and data from 289 UK gardens, and the plan is to keep updating it to sharpen its predictions.
Why gardeners are paying attention
Prof Sam Brockington, a curator at Cambridge University Botanic Garden, said gardeners could once rely on knowledge handed down from earlier generations, but are now facing climate scenarios without such traditions. Drought is still declared across most of England, and repeated heatwaves scorched gardens and parks over the summer.
The aim is to help gardeners anticipate climate effects on their plants rather than react to them afterwards. Brockington said the tool would also flag plants in the UK that are struggling, so they can be removed from collections gradually.
What it could mean for your garden
Garden designer Laura Carey said trees are a major question, and warned she would be wary of planting silver birch unless the site is fairly moist, after seeing them suffer over two very hot summers. She also said the tool’s focus on changeable weather, not only higher temperatures, could support longer-term choices.
Clive Boase of the charity Climate Change Gardening said the tool could help gardeners in the east of England, the driest region in the UK, feel more confident about moving away from water-hungry features of the classic English garden. He named lush lawns and flowers such as hydrangeas and delphiniums. He added that people attached to a certain look need support to change.
Limits so far
Alistair Griffiths, the RHS’s director of science, said soil type is not currently a variable in the tool. Kim Shrosbree of the Epsom Garden Society said that matters, because gardeners on chalk and clay face opposite conditions. A list of plants suited to the climate of her area, she said, would still include many that would not grow on her chalk soil.
Garden designer Juliet Sargeant said the location feature is essential, since generic advice is no longer enough and results depend on each garden.
What happens next
For now the tool is only open to professional gardeners. Griffiths said the long-term hope is to make it available to the wider gardening public, but the timeline is uncertain. Until then, home gardeners can still consider water needs, local conditions and their own soil when choosing plants for the years ahead.
Source: The Guardian